The HCR-20V3 is a violence risk assessment tool that is widely used in forensic clinical practice for risk management planning. The predictive value of the tool, when used in court for legal decisionmaking, is not yet intensively been studied and questions about legal admissibility may arise. This article aims to provide legal and mental health practitioners with an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of the HCR-20V3 when applied in legal settings. The HCR-20V3 is described and discussed with respect to its psychometric properties for different groups and settings. Issues involving legal admissibility and potential biases when conducting violence risk assessments with the HCR-20V3 are outlined. To explore legal admissibility challenges with respect to the HCR-20V3, we searched case law databases since 2013 from Australia, Canada, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, the UK, and the USA. In total, we found 546 cases referring to the HCR-20/HCR-20V3. In these cases, the tool was rarely challenged (4.03%), and when challenged, it never resulted in a court decision that the risk assessment was inadmissible. Finally, we provide recommendations for legal practitioners for the cross-examination of risk assessments and recommendations for mental health professionals who conduct risk assessments and report to the court. We conclude with suggestions for future research with the HCR-20V3 to strengthen the evidence base for use of the instrument in legal contexts.
Most violence risk assessment tools have been validated predominantly in males. In this multicenter study, the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management–20 (HCR-20), Historical, Clinical, Risk Management–20 Version 3 (HCR-20V3), Female Additional Manual (FAM), Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START), Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk (SAPROF), and Psychopathy Checklist–Revised (PCL-R) were coded on file information of 78 female forensic psychiatric patients discharged between 1993 and 2012 with a mean follow-up period of 11.8 years from one of four Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Notable was the high rate of mortality (17.9%) and readmission to psychiatric settings (11.5%) after discharge. Official reconviction data could be retrieved from the Ministry of Justice and Security for 71 women. Twenty-four women (33.8%) were reconvicted after discharge, including 13 for violent offenses (18.3%). Overall, predictive validity was moderate for all types of recidivism, but low for violence. The START Vulnerability scores, HCR-20V3, and FAM showed the highest predictive accuracy for all recidivism. With respect to violent recidivism, only the START Vulnerability scores and the Clinical scale of the HCR-20V3 demonstrated significant predictive accuracy.
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Within recent years, Financial Credit Risk Assessment (FCRA) has become an increasingly important issue within the financial industry. Therefore, the search for features that can predict the credit risk of an organization has increased. Using multiple statistical techniques, a variance of features has been proposed. Applying a structured literature review, 258 papers have been selected. From the selected papers, 835 features have been identified. The features have been analyzed with respect to the type of feature, the information sources needed and the type of organization that applies the features. Based on the results of the analysis, the features have been plotted in the FCRA Model. The results show that most features focus on hard information from a transactional source, based on official information with a high latency. In this paper, we readdress and -present our earlier work [1]. We extended the previous research with more detailed descriptions of the related literature, findings, and results, which provides a grounded basis from which further research on FCRA can be conducted.
The Dutch main water systems face pressing environmental, economic and societal challenges due to climatic changes and increased human pressure. There is a growing awareness that nature-based solutions (NBS) provide cost-effective solutions that simultaneously provide environmental, social and economic benefits and help building resilience. In spite of being carefully designed and tested, many projects tend to fail along the way or never get implemented in the first place, wasting resources and undermining trust and confidence of practitioners in NBS. Why do so many projects lose momentum even after a proof of concept is delivered? Usually, failure can be attributed to a combination of eroding political will, societal opposition and economic uncertainties. While ecological and geological processes are often well understood, there is almost no understanding around societal and economic processes related to NBS. Therefore, there is an urgent need to carefully evaluate the societal, economic, and ecological impacts and to identify design principles fostering societal support and economic viability of NBS. We address these critical knowledge gaps in this research proposal, using the largest river restoration project of the Netherlands, the Border Meuse (Grensmaas), as a Living Lab. With a transdisciplinary consortium, stakeholders have a key role a recipient and provider of information, where the broader public is involved through citizen science. Our research is scientifically innovative by using mixed methods, combining novel qualitative methods (e.g. continuous participatory narrative inquiry) and quantitative methods (e.g. economic choice experiments to elicit tradeoffs and risk preferences, agent-based modeling). The ultimate aim is to create an integral learning environment (workbench) as a decision support tool for NBS. The workbench gathers data, prepares and verifies data sets, to help stakeholders (companies, government agencies, NGOs) to quantify impacts and visualize tradeoffs of decisions regarding NBS.
Over the past decade, the trend in both the public sector and industry has been to outsource ICT to the cloud. While cost savings are often used as a rationale for outsourcing, another argument that is frequently used is that the cloud improves security. The reasoning behind this is twofold. First, cloud service providers are typically thought to have skilled staff trained in good security practices. Second, cloud providers often have a vastly distributed, highly connected network infrastructure, making them more resilient in the face of outages and denial-of-service attacks. Yet many examples of cloud outages, often due to attacks, call into question whether outsourcing to the cloud does improve security. In this project our goal therefore is to answer two questions: 1) did the cloud make use more secure?and 2) can we provide specific security guidance to support cloud outsourcing strategies? We will approach these questions in a multi-disciplinary fashion from a technical angle and from a business and management perspective. On the technical side, the project will focus on providing comprehensive insight into the attack surface at the network level of cloud providers and their users. We will use a measurement-based approach, leveraging large scale datasets about the Internet, both our own data (e.g. OpenINTEL, a large- scale dataset of active DNS measurements) and datasets from our long-term collaborators, such as CAIDA in the US (BGPStream, Network Telescope) and Saarland University in Germany (AmpPot). We will use this data to study the network infrastructure outside and within cloud environments to structurally map vulnerabilities to attacks as well as to identify security anti-patterns, where the way cloud services are managed or used introduce a weak point that attackers can target. From a business point of view, we will investigate outsourcing strategies for both the cloud providers and their customers. For guaranteeing 100% availability, cloud service providers have to maintain additional capacity at all times. They also need to forecast capacity requirements continuously for financially profitable decisions. If the forecast is lower than the capacity needed, then the cloud is not able to deliver 100% availability in case of an attack. Conversely, if the forecast is substantially higher, the cloud service provider might not be able to make desired profits. We therefore propose to assess the risk profiles of cloud providers (how likely it is a cloud provider is under attack at a given time given the nature of its customers) using available attack data to improve the provider resilience to future attacks. From the costumer perspective, we will investigate how we can support cloud outsourcing by taking into consideration business and technical constraints. Decision to choose a cloud service provider is typically based on multiple criteria depending upon the company’s needs (security and operational). We will develop decision support systems that will help in mapping companies’ needs to cloud service providers’ offers.
In de toekomst zullen wateroverlast en droogte steeds vaker voorkomen. Hoewel water van grote betekenis is voor ons dagelijks leven - en Nederland een rijke traditie heeft van waterbeheer - maken sociale, culturele en historische waarden slechts sporadisch deel uit van watergerelateerd beleid. Omdat er bij wateropgaven veel verschillende partijen aan tafel zitten, is het belangrijk te snappen welke waarden meespelen bij besluitvormingsprocessen. Een serious game kan helpen bij het formuleren van die waarden om bij te dragen aan een beter ‘waterbewustzijn’ van zowel beleidsmakers als bewoners, en bewoners beter te betrekken bij hun eigen leefomgeving. Six Architecten, actief in bouw- en renovatieprojecten waarin water en erfgoed een rol spelen, lopen aan tegen een beleidsomgeving van tegengestelde belangen. De gameontwikkelaar IJsfontein in Amsterdam ontwikkelt serious games en heeft veel ervaring met het visualiseren van historisch materiaal voor musea en archieven, maar zoekt naar de kennis om deze vaardigheden toepasbaar te maken binnen de hedendaagse klimaatopgave. Met deze twee praktijkpartners werken onderzoekers van de TU Delft, op het gebied van watererfgoed, ontwerpen voor waarden (Delft Design for Values) en games (TPM), samen aan de WaterWaarden-game. Voor dit project gaan we in gesprek met beleidsmakers en bewoners om te achterhalen welke waarden er meespelen bij een selectie van objecten (zoals kades, dijken, gemalen) binnen de casus Amsterdam. Waternet, het waterbedrijf van de gemeente Amsterdam en het waterschap Amstel, Gooi en Vecht, zal bijdragen bij het contacten leggen met betrokken en het toetsen aan de beleidswerkelijkheid. Door de waarden en uitdagingen in specifieke opgaven in Amsterdam te analyseren en in de game te verwerken, werken we toe naar een prototype en een aanvraag om deze serious game te ontwikkelen tot een gameplatform dat in de toekomst ook bij wateropgaven in andere gebieden gebruikt kan worden.
